Aleksanteri Institute Visiting Fellows seminar
From legal regulation to tacit codes of conduct: norms of competition in Russia’s war against Ukraine and Russia’s disruption of the European security order
Speaker: Roy Allison, Professor of Russian and Eurasian International Relations, University of Oxford
Chair: Katri Pynnöniemi, Associate Professor of Russian security studies, Aleksanteri Institute, University of Helsinki and the Finnish National Defense University
With its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian justifications for the use of force have shifted from earlier claims which were often legally arguable, if unpersuasive, to political, historical and openly revanchist claims which lie outside the domain of international law and the UN Charter system. Russian actions and narratives also override core principles of the European security order of the Helsinki Final Act of 1975, Paris Charter and the OSCE.
This appears to leave little to regulate and constrain Russia’s exercise of military Realpolitik or the risks of wider escalation with Western states. As will be discussed, there remains uncertainty about the role of residual legal principles on neutrality law and the belligerent status of states. Looking forward, there is also uncertainty whether Russia would comply with formal treaty instruments, as public international law, in future negotiations on Ukraine. However, research suggests that, beyond formal regulation, certain tacit codes of conduct or norms of competition may be emerging around the war – these form rules of prudence rather than law. Such codes could serve as ‘guardrails’ to help restrain further dangerous escalation. Evidence for this is derived from a process of discursive signalling, of interactive communications between Russia, Ukraine and Western states. However, the medium-term prospect for the operation of core principles of a European security order beyond the EU and NATO zone remain poor.
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